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Swiss pension funds experienced a positive performance in November, achieving an average return of 1.46% after fees, with year-to-date returns at 7.76%. Smaller funds outperformed larger ones, while global equities led asset class performance at 4.73%. UBS forecasts suggest lower interest rates and increased market volatility ahead.
Citigroup Inc. advises investors to bet against the market's expectations of rapid interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) next year. Currently, money markets anticipate cuts at every meeting until June, followed by one more in the latter half of 2025. Analyst Jamie Searle believes this positioning is overly aggressive, especially in light of potential trade tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump.
The rupee fell by 8 paise to close at 84.74 against the US dollar, influenced by foreign fund outflows and a lackluster performance in domestic equities. It opened at 84.70 and reached a low of 84.73 during the day, following a previous gain of 5 paise to 84.66.
Oil prices are unlikely to rise significantly unless there is a supply shortage or geopolitical tensions. Despite the end of the Syrian Civil War, which traditionally would impact oil prices, the market remains stable, largely due to Saudi Arabia's unexpected price cuts for Asian buyers, reducing its premium for Arab Light crude significantly.
Portugal’s Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento expressed confidence that France will resolve its current political crisis, stating it poses no threat to Europe. In an interview, he emphasized that he believes a political solution will bring stability to the country.
Luxury car manufacturers BMW India and Audi will increase prices by up to 3% starting January 1, 2025, due to rising input and transportation costs. Other automakers, including Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, and Mahindra, are also implementing price hikes ranging from 1-4% across their model ranges to offset increased operational expenses.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is visiting Brussels to foster closer economic ties with the European Union. At the Eurogroup meeting, she will emphasize the importance of building a relationship based on trust and mutual respect, aiming to reduce trade barriers and enhance investment opportunities.
Chinese stocks in Hong Kong saw a significant rebound, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising 3.1%, marking its largest gain since October 18. This surge followed commitments from top leaders to ease monetary policy and stimulate consumption. Additionally, the offshore yuan strengthened by 0.1%, reflecting optimism about China's economic recovery, while the yield on 10-year government bonds fell two basis points to 1.935%.
China's leadership plans to adopt a "moderately loose" monetary policy and enhance fiscal spending in 2025, marking a significant shift since 2011. This decision comes as the country prepares for potential economic challenges with the anticipated second trade war following Donald Trump's inauguration. The Politburo has committed to a more proactive fiscal approach, signaling a robust response to upcoming economic pressures.
India-dedicated global funds experienced a slight rebound with $156 million in inflows after enduring $1 billion in redemptions since October. This uptick follows a period of consistent outflows, with India seeing the second-highest outflows among emerging markets at $2.2 billion, trailing only China. Meanwhile, foreign investors invested $9.9 billion into US funds, highlighting the ongoing dominance of the US in global capital flows.
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